BIG STORY: Cunningham in striking distance in gov’s race, poll says

By Andy Brack, editor and publisher  |  It’s less than nine weeks to election day and former Democratic U.S. Rep. Joe Cunningham is close enough to be able to beat incumbent GOP Gov. Henry McMaster in November, according to new internal poll results.

“Incumbent Governor McMaster has less than 50% of the vote and leads by just 7 points against Cunningham (42% Cunningham, 49% McMaster, 4% [Libertarian Morgan Bruce] Reeves),” according to a poll by Impact Research for the Cunningham campaign. “Interestingly, this is a similar margin to the one Cunningham initially faced against Katie Arrington in the 2018 congressional polling.”

But the numbers are closer once those who were polled learned more about Cunningham.  When likely voters heard what the pollsters called “balanced positive information about each candidate,” Cunningham narrowed the gap to 3 points,” according to a memo that said the Charleston Democrat was “within striking distance” of McMaster. It added Cunningham led among voters who “know both candidates today.”

The poll, taken Aug. 24 to Aug. 30 among 700 likely 2022 general election voters, had a margin of error of 3.7% at the 95% confidence level. Among Impact Research’s other clients:  President Joe Biden.

“Clear path to victory”

Cunningham strategist Tyler Jones told the City Paper that the parallel to Cunningham’s 2018 upset victory over Arrington is revealing.

“He went on to pull off the biggest upset of the entire [2018] midterm cycle and flip a district that hadn’t voted for a Democrat in 40 years,” Jones said. “Today, Joe begins the race for governor even closer with a clear path to victory.”

But polling hypotheticals are made in something of a political vacuum as the numbers generally don’t reflect real-life negatives, such as a recent attack ad started by the McMaster campaign to satirize Cunningham as a policy fraternity boy.

College of Charleston political science professor Gibbs Knotts, however, said the new poll, even though conducted by a Democratic polling firm, showed encouraging signs for Cunningham’s campaign.

“It was a particularly good sign for Cunningham that he is leading among women and independent voters,” Knotts said. According to the poll, Cunningham led women by a 50-41 percentage margin and led among independent voters by a 39-28 percentage margin.   

With the recent U.S. Supreme Court decision and ongoing debates about abortion access in the state legislature, women in particular will be a decisive factor in this race,” Knotts said. “Cunningham will certainly need to maximize his support with those groups to win in this Republican-dominated state.”

Jones agreed on the importance of the differences between Cunningham, who supports a woman’s right to make her own health care decisions, and McMaster on abortion.

“Henry McMaster’s support for a total abortion ban with no exceptions, along with Joe being a uniquely strong candidate with high name ID and crossover appeal, has turned this race on its head,” Jones said. “Our polling shows that if Joe can communicate his message statewide, he can win. Now we know why McMaster went negative in his first TV ad — he’s worried — and he should be.”

According to the poll, women were oversampled (56-44%) as women tend to vote in higher numbers than men. The poll appeared to undersample minority voters with 23% of respondents being Black and 1% being Hispanic. By party, 47% of respondents identified as Republican, 36% as Democrats and 16% as independents.

Competitive nature of race on display

The next two months of the campaign are expected to be tough for both candidates. The competitive nature of the campaign was on display Tuesday in Charleston when McMaster touted an endorsement by the National Federation of Independent Business.  But Cunningham’s team fired back that the incumbent was bad for small businesses.

“The facts are clear: Under Henry McMaster’s disastrous record as governor and a career politician, South Carolina has the highest income tax rate in the entire region,” Jones said earlier this week. “Our state is dead last in roads and near dead last in education. 

McMaster, however, outlined how his administration has cut income taxes from 7% to 6% – and wants more. He said he views the state’s small businesses as the backbone of the Palmetto State’s economy. Other states shut down businesses during the Covid-19 pandemic, but he said South Carolina went in another direction to mostly allow businesses to remain open.

“When the pandemic hit, we kept businesses, just like this one [at Wulbern-Koval Co. on Morrison Drive], open because we knew following the so-called experts in Washington would cost us dearly,” McMaster said at a press conference that had three television cameras filming.  

“Working together with small businesses across South Carolina, we have the wind at our back, and we can’t stop now – we have to continue to reduce the cost of doing business here, from cutting taxes to slashing red tape, and that’s exactly what we’ll do as long as I’m governor.”

NFIB State Director Ben Homeyer said McMaster long has had the support of its 4,000 small business members across the state.

“Governor McMaster threaded the needle when it came to South Carolina’s response to the Covid-19 pandemic,” he said. “Governor McMaster’s leadership helped protect both lives and livelihoods, and he has kept South Carolina’s economy strong despite global challenges such as inflation and disruptions in the supply chain.”

Jones argued Cunningham is the better leader for the future.

“Joe Cunningham was ranked one of the most independent and effective members of Congress, and received the endorsement of the conservative United States Chamber of Commerce for his strong, pro-business record,” Jones said. “Joe is the only candidate for governor who supports eliminating the state income tax, legalizing marijuana and sports betting and creating tens of thousands of new jobs in the process, and the only candidate who trusts women to make their own health care decisions. 

He called McMaster a leader stuck in the past. “Joe Cunningham will be an independent, pro-business governor who will bring South Carolina’s economy out of the past and into the future.” 

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