By Andy Brack, news analysis | While a new Winthrop Poll shows former S.C. Gov. Nikki Haley has moved into second place in the February 2024 race to win the GOP presidential primary, most media reports missed how former President Donald Trump actually increased his lead.
In the university’s April poll, Trump led with 41% of GOP voters. But in the new October poll, just over half — 50.5% — said they preferred the former president. In April, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis had a 20% showing, but that dropped in October to 12.1%, which allowed Haley to push into second — even though her share of the vote went down from 18% to 16.6%.
On a national level, Haley is enjoying a lot more attention due to two generally positive debate performances where she distinguished herself from the pack.
“But she and everyone else is still being lapped by Trump,” said Winthrop University pollster Scott Huffmon. “Trump is using the criminal and civil charges [he faces] to position himself as a persecuted martyr figure and his base is eating it up.”
Huffmon said DeSantis continued to disappoint many Republicans.
“He flew a little too close to the sun and courted a bit too much controversy and his ‘summer campaign reboot’ seems not to have materialized,” Huffmon said.
College of Charleston political scientist Gibbs Knotts said Trump remains the odds-on favorite to win South Carolina’s early GOP primary.
For a different candidate to prevail here, the field needs to be much narrower, he said. The choice would need to be between Trump and one or two candidates.
“Second, someone needs to have a better than expected showing in Iowa and/or New Hampshire,” he said. “If Haley did well in New Hampshire, that could springboard her to a strong showing in South Carolina.”
An unknown is whether Trump is convicted of a crime by the time S.C. GOP primary voters head to the polls, he said.
“If Trump is convicted of a felony, I think that would hurt his prospects,” Knotts said. “I just don’t think the Florida case or the D.C. case will be finished before the S.C. primary on Feb. 2.”
Furman University political scientist Danielle Vinson added the indictments seemed to be helping Trump.
“Unless Haley or one of the other candidates not named Christie starts openly explaining why people should not vote for Trump, I expect he will win,” she said. “Right now, the narrative in conservative circles seems to be that Trump is being persecuted by the prosecutors and Democrats, and Republican voters seem inclined to circle the wagons and support him.
“If one of the other candidates doesn’t change that narrative, Trump will win.”
She added, however, that if Trump’s support collapses, Haley is being viewed increasingly as a fallback candidate.
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